Field notes on building, AI, and the next decade of software.
Weekly essays on building companies, product judgment, AI, commerce, and the operating systems behind durable software businesses.
Thoughts on the Market: October 2022
September was a rough month for the equity markets, with the S&P 500 (-9.34%) and Nasdaq (-10.61%), marking the worst monthly decline since March of 2020. In our April letter, we called for a 3250 downside target on the S&P 500. In our June letter, w...
4 min · ♡ 123Thoughts on the Market: September 2022
August was a very interesting month for the markets, marked with meaningful volatility with a ~9% range from the high and low of the month. The ultimate question that the market was (and maybe still is) trying to answer: Was the recent rally a bear market ra...
5 min · ♡ 119Thoughts on the Market: August 2022
July was a very positive month for the markets, meaningfully reversing the trend we saw in the first half of the year. The primary causal factors seemed to be: A 75bps rate increase from the Fed that was accompanied by what many perceived as a dovish pivot...
4 min · ♡ 114Thoughts on the Market: July 2022
The market has moved down somewhat quickly in the first half of the year, and while many of the downside catalysts remain unchanged, it’s important to remember that the market doesn’t go up or down in a straight line. Bear market rallies can be equally as vi...
5 min · ♡ 116Thoughts on the Market: June 2022
Our views have remained consistent throughout the year, and we reiterate them today. We started our January 2022 letter saying: It’s been a rocky start to the year, and while some believe we’ve hit the bottom already, we feel the potential for a downside move...
3 min · ♡ 110How to Make a Market Pullback Work for You
It’s been a rough few weeks in the market, and I don’t believe it’s getting better for a while longer. I hate to join many others in sharing my pessimism about the near-term, but all the indicators I follow point toward a meaningful pullback. But while the ti...
10 min · ♡ 103Thoughts on the Market: May 2022
I'm an investor in an early stage global macro fund. Each month, we publish a newsletter with our thoughts on the market and our fund's performance. I'm now publishing an edited version of that newsletter here, so a broader audience can participate in the con...
Thoughts on the Market: April 2022
I'm an investor in an early stage global macro fund. Each month, we publish a newsletter with our thoughts on the market and our fund’s performance. I’m now publishing an edited version of that newsletter here, so a broader audience can participate in the con...
Thoughts on the Market: March 2022
I'm an investor in an early stage global macro fund. Each month, we publish a newsletter with our thoughts on the market and our fund’s performance. I’m now publishing an edited version of that newsletter here, so a broader audience can participate in the con...
Thoughts on the Market: February 2022
I’m an investor in an early stage global macro fund. Each month, we publish a newsletter with our thoughts on the market and our fund’s performance. I’m now publishing an edited version of that newsletter here, so a broader audience can participate in the con...